Aetram Global Research: US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Research Report - 02.11.2026

Aetram Global Research: US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Research Report

Dollar Momentum Turns Neutral Near 101.93; Above 102.10 Improves Recovery While 101.84 Failure Restores Bearish Pressure

• Chart Name: US Dollar Index (DXY)
• Current Market Price: 101.93
• Current Trend: DXY remains range-bound below major resistance as recent rebound momentum begins to flatten.
• Trend Dominance: Bears retain broader influence, while bulls defend 101.84 support without decisive follow-through.

CHART OUTLOOK & PREDICTION

• Dollar is stabilizing around 101.93 after rebounding from 101.60, but 102.09–102.10 remains the dominant moving-average resistance cluster. RSI at 51.40 is neutral, MACD shows fading positive momentum, and ADX at 11.47 signals weak trend conviction. Holding 101.84 may support another 102.10 test; below 101.80 could expose 101.60.

UPCOMING EVENTS

• U.S. JOLTS data may strengthen dollar if labour demand remains resilient (Positive Catalyst)
• October employment report could support dollar if job growth exceeds expectations (Positive Catalyst)
• October CPI may weaken dollar if inflation pressures moderate further (Negative Catalyst)
• The JOLTS release is scheduled for November 3, the Employment Situation for November 6, and CPI for November 10.

MAJOR SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

• Support Levels: 101.84 / 101.60 / 101.40
• Resistance Levels: 101.94 / 102.10 / 102.40

TREND, VOLUME & DOW THEORY ANALYSIS

• Dow Theory shows an incomplete recovery after the rebound from 101.60, with price yet to establish a convincing higher-high sequence. The moving-average structure remains mixed, RSI is neutral, MACD momentum is fading, and weak ADX favours consolidation over strong directional continuation.

SCENARIO-BASED OUTLOOK

• Bullish Scenario: Above 102.10, price may move toward the 102.20–102.40 zone.
• Bearish Scenario: Below 101.84, downside risk could extend toward the 101.60–101.40 zone.
• Neutral Scenario: Between 101.84–102.10, range-bound consolidation may remain likely.

FINAL TAKEAWAY

• US Dollar Index is stabilizing after recent volatility, but the broader structure remains constrained below 102.10. Momentum lacks conviction, making 101.84–102.10 the key decision range. Acceptance above resistance may improve recovery prospects, while 101.84 failure could revive downside pressure.

CAUTION NOTES

• All Positivity Negates on breaking below 101.84.
• All Negativity Negates on breaking above 102.10.

DISCLAIMER: This research report is for informational purposes only. This is not an offer to buy or sell securities. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is no guarantee of returns. Investments in securities are subject to market risks including loss of capital. Investors should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Commodity Corner | Brent and WTI Decline as Markets Assess Iran Peace Prospects - 02.11.2026

Commodity Corner | Brent and WTI Decline as Markets Assess Iran Peace Prospects - 02.11.2026

Aetram Global Research - Commodity Corner

Aetram Global Research - Commodity Corner

Commodity Corner | Brent and WTI Decline as Markets Assess Iran Peace Prospects - 02.11.2026

• Oil prices fell more than 1% on Monday as Iranian and Qatari officials continued talks to end the US-Israeli war on Iran.
• Discussions entered a third consecutive day, supporting hopes for a peace agreement.

Price Movements:

• Brent crude futures declined $1.59, or 1.40%, to $111.84 per barrel.
• US WTI crude fell $1.56, or 1.50%, to $102.56 per barrel.
• Brent ended October at a six-month high amid concerns over renewed conflict escalation after Tuesday’s US midterm elections.

Aetram Global Research - Global Cues Market Updates - 02.11.2026

Aetram Global Research - Global Cues Market Updates

Aetram Global Research - Global Cues Market Updates

Aetram Global Research - Global Cues Market Updates

GLOBAL MARKET UPDATE - 02.11.2026

• GIFT Nifty Higher, Indicates A Gap-up Start For The Indian Market
• GIFT Nifty Trading At A Premium Of >150 pts From Nifty Fut Friday's Close
• US Futures Higher Ahead Of Busy Earnings Week, Jobs Data & Midterm Elections
• US Mkt Ends In Red On Fri, Nasdaq Posts Its Worst Losses Since March 2025
• Binance Sees $3.64 Bn In Net Outflows As Withdrawals Resume After Massive Hack
• European Markets Close Marginally Mixed On Friday
• OPEC+ Keeps Dec Oil Output Targets Steady Ahead Of Tougher Call For 2027
• Oil Eases As Trump Favours Diplomacy Over Strikes Ahead Of US Midterms

Aetram Global Research: Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar (XAUUSD) Outlook - 02.11.2026

Aetram Global Research: Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar (XAUUSD) Outlook

Gold Bears Retain Control Below 3,946; Recovery Above 3,946 May Target 3,986–4,005 While 3,880 Failure Risks Further Weakness - 02.11.2026, 08:15 IST

• Chart Name: Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar (XAUUSD)
• Current Market Price: 3,903.65
• Current Trend: Gold remains bearish despite an oversold recovery attempt from recent lower levels.
• Trend Dominance: Bears retain broader control, while bulls attempt recovery from the 3,880 region.

CHART OUTLOOK & PREDICTION

• Gold remains below its major moving-average cluster after a sharp decline toward 3,880. RSI near 44 reflects recovering but subdued momentum; MACD is improving from negative territory, while ADX near 42 confirms strong trend conditions. Above 3,946 may expose 3,986–4,005; below 3,880 risks renewed weakness.

UPCOMING EVENTS

• U.S. JOLTS data Tuesday could reshape rate expectations and gold volatility (Negative Catalyst)
• U.S. employment report Friday may increase Treasury-yield and gold volatility (Negative Catalyst)
• U.S. October CPI next week could strengthen rate-cut expectations if softer (Positive Catalyst) 

MAJOR SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

• Support Levels: 3,880 / 3,850 / 3,800
• Resistance Levels: 3,920 / 3,946 / 3,986

TREND, VOLUME & DOW THEORY ANALYSIS

• Dow Theory continues to reflect lower highs and lower lows, preserving the broader bearish structure. Selling participation expanded during the latest decline, while recovery momentum remains preliminary. Bearish moving-average alignment reinforces resistance above 3,946, although improving MACD suggests scope for a corrective recovery.

SCENARIO-BASED OUTLOOK

• Bullish Scenario: Above 3,946, price may move toward 3,986–4,005 zone.
• Bearish Scenario: Below 3,880, downside risk could extend toward 3,850–3,800 zone.
• Neutral Scenario: Between 3,880–3,946, consolidation may remain likely.

FINAL TAKEAWAY

• Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar retains a broader bearish structure beneath 3,946, despite early momentum recovery from 3,880. Improving MACD creates corrective upside potential, but resistance remains significant. Above 3,946 may improve recovery scope; below 3,880 could restore downside pressure.

CAUTION NOTES

• All Positivity Negates on breaking below 3,880.
• All Negativity Negates on breaking above 3,946.

DISCLAIMER : This research report is for informational purposes only. This is not an offer to buy or sell securities. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is no guarantee of returns. Investments in securities are subject to market risks including loss of capital. Investors should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

AETRAM GLOBAL RESEARCH - GLOBAL PRE MARKET INTELLIGENCE - 02.11.2026

AETRAM GLOBAL RESEARCH - GLOBAL PRE MARKET INTELLIGENCE

Technology Valuation Reset Deepens Before U.S. Election, While Elevated Crude, AI Spending and Geopolitical Risks Drive Volatility

1. GLOBAL MARKET ENVIRONMENT

• Global risk sentiment weakened sharply as technology, software, semiconductor and several other growth assets faced simultaneous selling pressure.
• The decline across multiple asset classes reflects elevated macro uncertainty rather than a single isolated corporate event.
• High crude prices, uncertain AI monetisation and the approaching U.S. election are keeping cross-asset volatility unusually high.
• Classification: Cautious / High Volatility

2. U.S. EQUITY MARKET

• U.S. equities ended Friday under substantial pressure, with technology-heavy indices experiencing the greatest damage.
• The Nasdaq recorded one of its weakest sessions since June, while broader market participation also deteriorated.
• A modest late-session recovery reduced some intraday losses, but it did not materially change the weak underlying risk tone.
• Classification: Negative / Technology-Led Selling

3. U.S. WEEKLY MARKET STRUCTURE

• The S&P 500 declined roughly 2% over the week, while the Nasdaq lost approximately 3%.
• Technology weakness outweighed resilience in selected old-economy and defensive segments.
• Broad weekly declines indicate that the correction has expanded beyond a handful of individual mega-cap stocks.
• Classification: Negative / Broad Risk Reduction

4. MARKET VOLATILITY — VIX

• U.S. volatility increased sharply, with the VIX approaching the 20 region following Friday's equity decline.
• Rising volatility reflects uncertainty surrounding technology earnings, geopolitical developments and the U.S. election.
• Elevated VIX conditions increase the probability of wider intraday price swings across global equities.
• Classification: High Risk / Volatility Elevated

5. AI VALUATION RESET

• The current AI correction appears driven primarily by valuation, revenue visibility and monetisation concerns rather than abandonment of AI investment.
• Major technology companies continue maintaining or expanding capital expenditure despite weaker investor confidence.
• The central market question has shifted from AI adoption toward whether future revenues can justify the scale of infrastructure spending.
• Classification: Structural Positive / Near-Term Valuation Risk

6. AI CAPITAL-EXPENDITURE CYCLE

• Big technology companies collectively retain very large multi-year commitments toward AI infrastructure, computing capacity, buildings and energy requirements.
• Competitive pressure makes aggressive spending difficult to reduce because companies risk losing technological leadership if they fall behind.
• Persistent investment without equivalent revenue visibility increases free-cash-flow and valuation sensitivity.
• Classification: Strong Structural Growth / High Execution Risk

7. AI MONETISATION CHALLENGE

• AI companies still face uncertainty around subscription pricing, enterprise adoption, use cases and long-term revenue generation.
• Lower-cost Chinese models could increase competitive pressure and accelerate commoditisation across parts of the AI ecosystem.
• Falling AI service prices may support wider adoption but could simultaneously reduce expected returns on expensive infrastructure investment.
• Classification: Major Strategic Risk / Monetisation Uncertain

8. SEMICONDUCTOR & HARDWARE SECTOR

• Semiconductor, PC and hardware shares faced widespread pressure following weaker forward expectations from major companies.
• AMD, Dell, HP and other technology-related names were affected as investors reassessed the strength of the next earnings cycle.
• Semiconductor demand remains supported by AI infrastructure, but elevated expectations leave valuations vulnerable to guidance disappointments.
• Classification: Structural Positive / Near-Term Negative

9. INTEL

• Intel's revenue and forward guidance fell below elevated market expectations, triggering an exceptionally sharp share-price correction.
• The reaction illustrates how strongly technology valuations depend on future revenue visibility rather than only current-quarter performance.
• Weak guidance from a major semiconductor company also affected sentiment across hardware and chip-related peers.
• Classification: Strong Negative / Guidance Shock

10. AMAZON & AWS

• AWS continued recording strong growth, demonstrating persistent demand for cloud and AI-related infrastructure.
• Despite healthy cloud expansion, weaker earnings delivery and uncertainty surrounding forward profitability weighed on Amazon's share price.
• The market is increasingly demanding simultaneous revenue growth, earnings quality and cash-flow visibility from premium-valued technology companies.
• Classification: Mixed Fundamentals / Valuation Pressure

11. MEMORY CHIPS & AI INFRASTRUCTURE

• Demand for advanced memory and AI infrastructure remains strong despite the correction in semiconductor equities.
• Strategic cooperation around memory chips continues as global AI infrastructure requirements expand.
• This divergence suggests that falling chip stocks should not automatically be interpreted as collapsing physical demand.
• Classification: Structural Positive / Equity-Market Correction

12. CHINESE AI COMPETITION

• China continues developing lower-cost AI models and autonomous coding systems that can compete with expensive Western platforms.
• Cheaper alternatives could accelerate global AI adoption while simultaneously compressing software pricing and margins.
• Competitive intensity strengthens the long-term AI ecosystem but creates greater uncertainty around which companies ultimately capture economic value.
• Classification: Positive for Adoption / Negative for Pricing Power

13. U.S. TREASURY YIELDS

• The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield eased toward the 4.94% region as investors increased bond exposure during the technology sell-off.
• Lower yields partly reflect reduced expectations for another acceleration in AI-related borrowing and infrastructure announcements.
• However, actual technology capital expenditure has not been materially reduced, limiting confidence that the yield decline represents a lasting structural shift.
• Classification: Mild Positive / Sustainability Uncertain

14. U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

• The Dollar Index remains near the 102 region, showing only limited strength despite heightened global risk.
• Currency direction remains sensitive to U.S. inflation, Treasury yields and changing expectations for future Federal Reserve policy.
• Renewed expectations of tighter monetary policy could restore upward pressure on the dollar.
• Classification: Neutral / Policy Sensitive

15. FEDERAL RESERVE RATE RISK

• Persistent U.S. inflation has revived discussion around whether monetary policy may need to remain restrictive for longer.
• Any renewed rate-hike expectations would increase financing costs for highly leveraged AI and growth companies.
• Higher rates would also challenge equity valuation multiples and increase the relative attractiveness of fixed-income assets.
• Classification: Negative Risk / Hawkish Policy Watch

16. BRENT & GLOBAL CRUDE OIL

• Crude remains exceptionally elevated, with near-term futures reflecting a substantial geopolitical risk premium.
• Prices have not corrected materially despite continuing diplomatic discussion, indicating that markets remain concerned about supply disruption.
• Sustained crude above current elevated levels would materially increase global inflation and weaken oil-importing economies.
• Classification: Very High Risk / Inflationary

17. OPEC SUPPLY POLICY

• OPEC maintained its December production framework rather than introducing a major supply adjustment.
• The next policy review becomes important if crude remains elevated or geopolitical disruptions intensify.
• Limited immediate supply relief keeps the oil market highly dependent on geopolitical developments and physical availability.
• Classification: Neutral Supply Policy / Bullish Price Risk

18. ENERGY-SECTOR PROFITABILITY

• Elevated crude and stronger refining economics are materially improving profitability for global energy producers and refiners.
• Higher finished-product prices allow stronger margins where companies can fully pass through elevated feedstock costs.
• Energy companies therefore remain direct beneficiaries of conditions that are simultaneously negative for consumers and oil-importing economies.
• Classification: Strong Positive Energy / Negative Global Macro

19. U.S.–IRAN GEOPOLITICAL RISK

• Geopolitical tension remains one of the principal drivers behind the elevated crude risk premium.
• Aggressive political rhetoric ahead of the U.S. election increases uncertainty around potential escalation or sudden diplomatic initiatives.
• Markets could react sharply in either direction because both de-escalation and renewed confrontation remain possible.
• Classification: Very High Risk / Two-Way Catalyst

20. U.S. ELECTION RISK

• The approaching U.S. election represents a major short-term catalyst for equities, bonds, currencies and commodities.
• Congressional composition could affect tariffs, fiscal policy and the ease with which future legislation is implemented.
• Executive authority remains significant, particularly in foreign policy, meaning geopolitical uncertainty may persist regardless of the election outcome.
• Classification: Major Event Watch / High Volatility

21. U.S. TECHNOLOGY POLICY AFTER ELECTION

• AI and technology remain strategic pillars of U.S. economic competitiveness irrespective of domestic political differences.
• A change in congressional balance may affect implementation and fiscal policy without necessarily reversing long-term technology investment.
• Structural competition with China is likely to keep semiconductor, AI and advanced computing strategically important.
• Classification: Structural Positive / Political Execution Risk

22. GOLD — CORRECTION VS LONG-TERM STRUCTURE

• Gold has experienced a meaningful correction, including weakness around the $3,900 region, after an extended advance.
• Near-term weakness does not automatically invalidate the longer-term case if inflation, currency debasement and geopolitical uncertainty remain elevated.
• Persistent high crude combined with inadequate real economic growth could eventually strengthen demand for monetary hedges.
• Classification: Near-Term Cautious / Long-Term Positive

23. SILVER

• Silver shares several monetary drivers with gold but carries materially higher volatility because of its industrial-demand component.
• Sharp corrections can therefore be significantly larger than those normally experienced in gold.
• The metal remains structurally interesting, but portfolio risk management becomes more important because of its wider price fluctuations.
• Classification: Long-Term Positive / High Volatility

24. CRUDE–INFLATION–GOLD RELATIONSHIP

• Persistently expensive crude would eventually transmit into transportation, manufacturing and consumer inflation.
• Administrative measures can temporarily moderate inflation, but sustained energy costs ultimately create pressure across the broader economy.
• A prolonged inflationary environment could restore demand for gold even after substantial short-term corrections.
• Classification: Inflationary / Long-Term Gold Supportive

25. CROSS-ASSET SELL-OFF

• Simultaneous weakness across equities, bonds and precious metals can occur temporarily when an overheated financial environment undergoes rapid repricing.
• Such episodes often reflect liquidity repositioning rather than identical deterioration in every underlying asset.
• Investors should distinguish temporary cross-asset deleveraging from permanent impairment of individual long-term themes.
• Classification: High Risk / Liquidity Repricing

FINAL TAKEAWAY

• Global markets enter the U.S. election with unusually high volatility and significant technology-sector uncertainty.
• The AI theme remains structurally intact, but valuations are being reset because capital expenditure continues to rise faster than visible monetisation.
• Semiconductor and hardware weakness reflects guidance and valuation concerns more than clear evidence of collapsing AI infrastructure demand.
• U.S. Treasury yields near 4.94% provide some valuation relief, while the Dollar Index remains close to 102.
• Elevated crude remains the largest macro threat because prolonged energy inflation could pressure global growth, monetary policy and consumer demand.
• Gold's correction does not necessarily invalidate its longer-term monetary and geopolitical role.

Overall Global Classification: Cautious / High Volatility with Structural AI Strength but Elevated Energy, Valuation and Geopolitical Risks.

DISCLAIMER : This international market research is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or guaranteed returns. Global equities, commodities, bonds, currencies and technology themes involve market, valuation, liquidity and geopolitical risks. Investors should independently assess suitability, financial objectives and risk tolerance before making investment decisions.