Aetram Global Research: Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar (XAUUSD) Outlook - 02.11.2026

Aetram Global Research: Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar (XAUUSD) Outlook

Gold Bears Retain Control Below 3,946; Recovery Above 3,946 May Target 3,986–4,005 While 3,880 Failure Risks Further Weakness - 02.11.2026, 08:15 IST

• Chart Name: Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar (XAUUSD)
• Current Market Price: 3,903.65
• Current Trend: Gold remains bearish despite an oversold recovery attempt from recent lower levels.
• Trend Dominance: Bears retain broader control, while bulls attempt recovery from the 3,880 region.

CHART OUTLOOK & PREDICTION

• Gold remains below its major moving-average cluster after a sharp decline toward 3,880. RSI near 44 reflects recovering but subdued momentum; MACD is improving from negative territory, while ADX near 42 confirms strong trend conditions. Above 3,946 may expose 3,986–4,005; below 3,880 risks renewed weakness.

UPCOMING EVENTS

• U.S. JOLTS data Tuesday could reshape rate expectations and gold volatility (Negative Catalyst)
• U.S. employment report Friday may increase Treasury-yield and gold volatility (Negative Catalyst)
• U.S. October CPI next week could strengthen rate-cut expectations if softer (Positive Catalyst) 

MAJOR SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

• Support Levels: 3,880 / 3,850 / 3,800
• Resistance Levels: 3,920 / 3,946 / 3,986

TREND, VOLUME & DOW THEORY ANALYSIS

• Dow Theory continues to reflect lower highs and lower lows, preserving the broader bearish structure. Selling participation expanded during the latest decline, while recovery momentum remains preliminary. Bearish moving-average alignment reinforces resistance above 3,946, although improving MACD suggests scope for a corrective recovery.

SCENARIO-BASED OUTLOOK

• Bullish Scenario: Above 3,946, price may move toward 3,986–4,005 zone.
• Bearish Scenario: Below 3,880, downside risk could extend toward 3,850–3,800 zone.
• Neutral Scenario: Between 3,880–3,946, consolidation may remain likely.

FINAL TAKEAWAY

• Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar retains a broader bearish structure beneath 3,946, despite early momentum recovery from 3,880. Improving MACD creates corrective upside potential, but resistance remains significant. Above 3,946 may improve recovery scope; below 3,880 could restore downside pressure.

CAUTION NOTES

• All Positivity Negates on breaking below 3,880.
• All Negativity Negates on breaking above 3,946.

DISCLAIMER : This research report is for informational purposes only. This is not an offer to buy or sell securities. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is no guarantee of returns. Investments in securities are subject to market risks including loss of capital. Investors should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions.