Aetram Global Research: USOUSD (US Oil Spot) Technical Research Report - 03.11.2026

Aetram Global Research: USOUSD (US Oil Spot) Technical Research Report 

US Oil Recovers From Recent Lows Near 96.15, But Bearish Structure Remains Intact Until 100.25 Is Reclaimed

• Chart Name: USOUSD (US Oil Spot)
• Current Market Price: 97.46
• Current Trend: US Oil remains structurally bearish after losing its rising trend and major support.
• Trend Dominance: Bears retain broader control, while oversold recovery attempts are developing near recent lows.

CHART OUTLOOK & PREDICTION

• US Oil has broken decisively below the 100.25 structural floor and rising trendline, leaving the 101.70–102.65 major moving-average cluster overhead. RSI at 48.29 shows momentum recovering from weakness, MACD remains negative, and ADX at 22.91 indicates moderate trend conviction. Above 98.00 may extend recovery toward 100.25; below 96.15 could expose 95.25.

UPCOMING EVENTS

• U.S.-Iran conflict escalation could restore supply-risk premium to crude prices (Positive Catalyst)
• Further Iran peace progress may reduce geopolitical premium across oil markets (Negative Catalyst)
• OPEC+ November policy review may influence 2027 supply expectations materially (Positive Catalyst)

MAJOR SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

• Support Levels: 96.15 / 95.25 / 94.30
• Resistance Levels: 98.00 / 100.25 / 101.70

TREND, VOLUME & DOW THEORY ANALYSIS

• Dow Theory has deteriorated materially as US Oil breaks its previous higher-low structure and falls beneath rising support. Selling participation expanded during the decline, while negative MACD and bearish moving-average positioning preserve downside risk. The rebound from 96.15 remains corrective unless 100.25 is reclaimed.

SCENARIO-BASED OUTLOOK

• Bullish Scenario: Above 100.25, price may move toward the 101.70–102.65 zone.
• Bearish Scenario: Below 96.15, downside risk could extend toward the 95.25–94.30 zone.
• Neutral Scenario: Between 96.15–100.25, volatile recovery and consolidation may remain likely.

FINAL TAKEAWAY

• US Oil Spot has suffered clear structural damage after losing both the rising trendline and 100.25 support. Immediate momentum is recovering from depressed levels, but broader pressure persists below 100.25. Sustained weakness under 96.15 could reopen 95.25–94.30 downside risk.

CAUTION NOTES

• All Positivity Negates on breaking below 96.15.
• All Negativity Negates on breaking above 100.25.

DISCLAIMER: This research report is for informational purposes only. This is not an offer to buy or sell securities. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is no guarantee of returns. Investments in securities are subject to market risks including loss of capital. Investors should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions.